jason heyward fangraphs jason heyward fangraphs

One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. Bill James Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Efficiency. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. Some call it a sweeper. His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. I think thats in the ballpark. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). That search reveals the following players. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors SUMMARY Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Im not going to worry about it.. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Gift a Membership. Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Age is the decisive factor here. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. The Cubs released Heyward. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. One spring of spring-training data. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. FanGraphs Shirts. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. Thats been fairly consistent. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Retrosheet. Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Im not all that mad about it. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). . rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Im a little stubborn in that way. Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said.